Labor makes Los Angeles' budget analyst a factor in mayoral race

Los Angeles City Hall's top budget analyst, who has succeeded in pushing an array of cost-cutting measures opposed by labor leaders, is becoming a lightning rod in the contest to replace Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

Union activists have been pressing top mayoral candidates to stake out positions on City Administrative Officer Miguel Santana and his approach to balancing the budget, which has included employee layoffs and furloughs, cuts in basic services and reductions in pension benefits.

At a labor forum last week, the candidates were asked whether they would keep Santana, who reports to both the mayor and City Council. Only one of them, Councilwoman Jan Perry, said she would. Four others — former prosecutor Kevin James, tech company executive Emanuel Pleitez, City Councilman Eric Garcetti and City Controller Wendy Greuel — declined to say, according to a recording of the event provided to The Times.

James, a Republican running as a City Hall outsider, told the audience it was "too soon" to indicate what he would do. Greuel sidestepped the question, saying she would be accountable as mayor and not use a "good cop, bad cop" approach to budget decisions. Pleitez did not address the question at all.

Garcetti, who was council president when nearly 400 employees were laid off, told the gathering that he would require all of the city's department heads to reapply for their jobs. "Nobody … should assume they have a job at the start of my administration," he told audience members, who belonged to various locals of the Service Employees International Union.

Santana's only defender was Perry, who said the city's elected officials need someone willing to deliver news they don't want to hear. "I can't stand here and tell you, 'Oh yeah, on Day One I'm going to fire him' ... because I'm not going to lie to you," she told the group.

The SEIU is deferring an endorsement until a runoff campaign leading up to a May 21 election. But their members have made no secret of their dislike for Santana, who has been pushing to contract out key city operations now performed by city employees. "Labor relations and collective bargaining are very important issues" in the campaign, said Victor Gordo, an attorney with the Coalition of L.A. City Unions. "And Miguel happens to be in charge of both."

Since being appointed by Villaraigosa in 2009, Santana has recommended the elimination of thousands of jobs and the shift of key operations, such as ambulance billing, to private vendors. He and the mayor are trying to persuade lawmakers to turn the L.A. Zoo and the L.A. Convention Center over to private operators — moves opposed by city unions.

Alan Peshek, a city employee and SEIU member who participated in last week's candidate forum, said in a statement issued by the union that Santana is hurting the city by "always demanding cutbacks and layoffs."

"The next elected mayor should make wiser staffing choices," he added.

Santana said his job is to provide independent advice to the mayor and council. With the city facing a "financial tsunami" in the next two years, layoffs and other cost-saving measures must remain on the table, he said. "Those options won't necessarily make me, or whoever's in this job, popular," he said.

The focus on Santana is reminiscent of the 2001 mayoral race, when candidates were asked if they would keep then-Police Chief Bernard C. Parks, a target of the police officers union. Mayor James K. Hahn removed Parks a year later, prompting a political backlash.

Key differences exist between Santana and Parks, who is now a councilman and a prominent figure in the city's African American community. But an attempt to remove Santana could set off a City Hall political battle similar to one that erupted over Parks' removal as police chief 10 years ago.

Council President Herb Wesson said he would rally his colleagues to block any effort by the next mayor to oust Santana. "They will fight me tooth and nail," Wesson said.

The city administrative officer position was created to provide reliable information to the mayor and the council, said Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute of Public Affairs. He noted that the city administrative officer can appeal to the City Council if the mayor tries to unseat him.

"If people are operating under the assumption that he automatically disappears just because a new mayor comes in, I think they might be wrong," he said.

david.zahniser@latimes.com

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Panasonic may sell Sanyo digital camera business: source

TOKYO (Reuters) – Panasonic Corp may sell its Sanyo digital camera business to Japanese private equity fund Advantage Partners by the end of March, a source familiar with the plan said.

A final decision on the sale will be made by the end of the year, the source said on condition he was not identified.

Advantage Partners will pay several hundreds of millions of yen for the business, which makes digital cameras for other companies, including Olympus Corp, the Nikkei business daily reported earlier.

Panasonic declined to comment saying it had not announced the plan.

The Japanese company aims to sell 110 billion yen ($ 1.34 billion) of assets, including buildings and land by the end of March to boost free cashflow to 200 billion yen for the business year. The company expects an annual net loss of close to $ 10 billion as it writes off billions in deferred tax assets and goodwill.

Panasonic acquired rival Sanyo, a leading maker of lithium ion batteries and solar panels, in 2010. Sales of compact digital cameras are under pressure from increasingly powerful smartphones.

Panasonic’s shares gained as much as 4 percent in early trading in Tokyo, compared with a 0.5 percent rise in the benchmark Nikkei 225 index. ($ 1 = 82.3900 Japanese yen)

(Reporting by Reiji Murai; Writing by Tim Kelly; Editing by Jeremy Laurence)

Gadgets News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Indian sitar virtuoso Ravi Shankar dies at 92

NEW DELHI (AP) — Ravi Shankar, the sitar virtuoso who became a hippie musical icon of the 1960s after hobnobbing with the Beatles and who introduced traditional Indian ragas to Western audiences over a 10-decade career, died Tuesday. He was 92.

A statement on the musician's website said he died in San Diego, near his Southern California home. The musician's foundation issued a statement saying that he had suffered upper respiratory and heart problems and had undergone heart-valve replacement surgery last week.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh also confirmed his death and called Shankar a "national treasure."

Labeled "the godfather of world music" by George Harrison, Shankar helped millions of classical, jazz and rock lovers discover the centuries-old traditions of Indian music.

He also pioneered the concept of the rock benefit with the 1971 Concert For Bangladesh. To later generations, he was known as the estranged father of popular American singer Norah Jones.

His last musical performance was with his other daughter, sitarist Anoushka Shankar Wright, on Nov. 4 in Long Beach, California; his foundation said it was to celebrate his 10th decade of creating music. The multiple Grammy winner learned that he had again been nominated for the award the night before his surgery.

As early as the 1950s, Shankar began collaborating with and teaching some of the greats of Western music, including violinist Yehudi Menuhin and jazz saxophonist John Coltrane. He played well-received shows in concert halls in Europe and the United States, but faced a constant struggle to bridge the musical gap between the West and the East.

Describing an early Shankar tour in 1957, Time magazine said. "U.S. audiences were receptive but occasionally puzzled."

His close relationship with Harrison, the Beatles lead guitarist, shot Shankar to global stardom in the 1960s.

Harrison had grown fascinated with the sitar, a long necked, string instrument that uses a bulbous gourd for its resonating chamber and resembles a giant lute. He played the instrument, with a Western tuning, on the song "Norwegian Wood," but soon sought out Shankar, already a musical icon in India, to teach him to play it properly.

The pair spent weeks together, starting the lessons at Harrison's house in England and then moving to a houseboat in Kashmir and later to California.

Gaining confidence with the complex instrument, Harrison recorded the Indian-inspired song "Within You Without You" on the Beatles' "Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band," helping spark the raga-rock phase of 60s music and drawing increasing attention to Shankar and his work.

Shankar's popularity exploded, and he soon found himself playing on bills with some of the top rock musicians of the era. He played a four-hour set at the Monterey Pop Festival and the opening day of Woodstock.

Though the audience for his music had hugely expanded, Shankar, a serious, disciplined traditionalist who had played Carnegie Hall, chafed against the drug use and rebelliousness of the hippie culture.

"I was shocked to see people dressing so flamboyantly. They were all stoned. To me, it was a new world," Shankar told Rolling Stone of the Monterey festival.

While he enjoyed Otis Redding and the Mamas and the Papas at the festival, he was horrified when Jimi Hendrix lit his guitar on fire.

"That was too much for me. In our culture, we have such respect for musical instruments, they are like part of God," he said.

In 1971, moved by the plight of millions of refugees fleeing into India to escape the war in Bangladesh, Shankar reached out to Harrison to see what they could do to help.

In what Shankar later described as "one of the most moving and intense musical experiences of the century," the pair organized two benefit concerts at Madison Square Garden that included Eric Clapton, Bob Dylan and Ringo Starr.

The concert, which spawned an album and a film, raised millions of dollars for UNICEF and inspired other rock benefits, including the 1985 Live Aid concert to raise funds for famine relief in Ethiopia and the 2010 Hope For Haiti Now telethon.

Ravindra Shankar Chowdhury was born April 7, 1920, in the Indian city of Varanasi.

At the age of 10, he moved to Paris to join the world famous dance troupe of his brother Uday. Over the next eight years, Shankar traveled with the troupe across Europe, America and Asia, and later credited his early immersion in foreign cultures with making him such an effective ambassador for Indian music.

During one tour, renowned musician Baba Allaudin Khan joined the troupe, took Shankar under his wing and eventually became his teacher through 7 1/2 years of isolated, rigorous study of the sitar.

"Khan told me you have to leave everything else and do one thing properly," Shankar told The Associated Press.

In the 1950s, Shankar began gaining fame throughout India. He held the influential position of music director for All India Radio in New Delhi and wrote the scores for several popular films. He began writing compositions for orchestras, blending clarinets and other foreign instruments into traditional Indian music.

And he became a de facto tutor for Westerners fascinated by India's musical traditions.

He gave lessons to Coltrane, who named his son Ravi in Shankar's honor, and became close friends with Menuhin, recording the acclaimed "West Meets East" album with him. He also collaborated with flutist Jean Pierre Rampal, composer Philip Glass and conductors Andre Previn and Zubin Mehta.

"Any player on any instrument with any ears would be deeply moved by Ravi Shankar. If you love music, it would be impossible not to be," singer David Crosby, whose band The Byrds was inspired by Shankar's music, said in the book "The Dawn of Indian Music in the West: Bhairavi."

Shankar's personal life, however, was more complex.

His 1941 marriage to Baba Allaudin Khan's daughter, Annapurna Devi, ended in divorce. Though he had a decades-long relationship with dancer Kamala Shastri that ended in 1981, he had relationships with several other women in the 1970s.

In 1979, he fathered Norah Jones with New York concert promoter Sue Jones, and in 1981, Sukanya Rajan, who played the tanpura at his concerts, gave birth to his daughter Anoushka.

He grew estranged from Sue Jones in the 80s and didn't see Norah for a decade, though they later re-established contact.

He married Rajan in 1989 and trained young Anoushka as his heir on the sitar. In recent years, father and daughter toured the world together.

When Jones shot to stardom and won five Grammy awards in 2003, Anoushka Shankar was nominated for a Grammy of her own.

Shankar, himself, has won three Grammy awards and was nominated for an Oscar for his musical score for the movie "Gandhi." His album "The Living Room Sessions, Part 1" earned him his latest Grammy nomination, for best world music album.

Despite his fame, numerous albums and decades of world tours, Shankar's music remained a riddle to many Western ears.

Shankar was amused after he and colleague Ustad Ali Akbar Khan were greeted with admiring applause when they opened the Concert for Bangladesh by twanging their sitar and sarod for a minute and a half.

"If you like our tuning so much, I hope you will enjoy the playing more," he told the confused crowd, and then launched into his set.

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Ravi Nessman reported from Bangkok.

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Well: Why Afternoon May Be the Best Time to Exercise

Phys Ed

Gretchen Reynolds on the science of fitness.

Does exercise influence the body’s internal clock? Few of us may be conscious of it, but our bodies, and in turn our health, are ruled by rhythms. “The heart, the liver, the brain — all are controlled by an endogenous circadian rhythm,” says Christopher Colwell, a professor of psychiatry at the University of California, Los Angeles’s Brain Research Institute, who led a series of new experiments on how exercise affects the body’s internal clock. The studies were conducted in mice, but the findings suggest that exercise does affect our circadian rhythms, and the effect may be most beneficial if the exercise is undertaken midday.

For the study, which appears in the December Journal of Physiology, the researchers gathered several types of mice. Most of the animals were young and healthy. But some had been bred to have a malfunctioning internal clock, or pacemaker, which involves, among other body parts, a cluster of cells inside the brain “whose job it is to tell the time of day,” Dr. Colwell says.

These pacemaker cells receive signals from light sources or darkness that set off a cascade of molecular effects. Certain genes fire, expressing proteins, which are released into the body, where they migrate to the heart, neurons, liver and elsewhere, choreographing those organs to pulse in tune with the rest of the body. We sleep, wake and function physiologically according to the dictates of our body’s internal clock.

But, Dr. Colwell says, that clock can become discombobulated. It is easily confused, for instance, by viewing artificial light in the evening, he says, when the internal clock expects darkness. Aging also worsens the clock’s functioning, he says. “By middle age, most of us start to have trouble falling asleep and staying asleep,” he says. “Then we have trouble staying awake the next day.”

The consequences of clock disruptions extend beyond sleepiness. Recent research has linked out-of-sync circadian rhythm in people to an increased risk for diabetes, obesity, certain types of cancer, memory loss and mood disorders, including depression.

“We believe there are serious potential health consequences” to problems with circadian rhythm, Dr. Colwell says. Which is why he and his colleagues set out to determine whether exercise, which is so potent physiologically, might “fix” a broken clock, and if so, whether exercising in the morning or later in the day is more effective in terms of regulating circadian rhythm.

They began by letting healthy mice run, an activity the animals enjoy. Some of the mice ran whenever they wanted. Others were given access to running wheels only in the early portion of their waking time (mice are active at night) or in the later stages, the equivalent of the afternoon for us.

After several weeks of running, the exercising mice, no matter when they ran, were found to be producing more proteins in their internal-clock cells than the sedentary animals. But the difference was slight in these healthy animals, which all had normal circadian rhythms to start with.

So the scientists turned to mice unable to produce a critical internal clock protein. Signals from these animals’ internal clocks rarely reach the rest of the body.

But after several weeks of running, the animals’ internal clocks were sturdier. Messages now traveled to these animals’ hearts and livers far more frequently than in their sedentary counterparts.

The beneficial effect was especially pronounced in those animals that exercised in the afternoon (or mouse equivalent).

That finding, Dr. Colwell says, “was a pretty big surprise.” He and his colleagues had expected to see the greatest effects from morning exercise, a popular workout time for many athletes.

But the animals that ran later produced more clock proteins and pumped the protein more efficiently to the rest of the body than animals that ran early in their day.

What all of this means for people isn’t clear, Dr. Colwell says. “It is evident that exercise will help to regulate” our bodily clocks and circadian rhythms, he says, especially as we enter middle age.

But whether we should opt for an afternoon jog over one in the morning “is impossible to say yet,” he says.

Late-night exercise, meanwhile, is probably inadvisable, he continues. Unpublished results from his lab show that healthy mice running at the animal equivalent of 11 p.m. or so developed significant disruptions in their circadian rhythm. Among other effects, they slept poorly.

“What we know, right now,” he says, “is that exercise is a good idea” if you wish to sleep well and avoid the physical ailments associated with an aging or clumsy circadian rhythm. And it is possible, although not yet proven, that afternoon sessions may produce more robust results.

“But any exercise is likely to be better than none,” he concludes. “And if you like morning exercise, which I do, great. Keep it up.”

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Michigan puts limits on unions

NEW YORK —- Labor relations in the Midwest reached a new level of acrimony as Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder abruptly signed legislation placing limits on unions, setting up a bitter political battle that could resonate nationwide.

It's a stunning development for a blue state that's been known as a place friendly to labor, where autoworkers and their families from Detroit to Saginaw have benefited from generous union contracts. An estimated 15,000 workers descended on the state Capitol in Lansing on Tuesday to protest against the bills, scuffling at times with police and conservatives who also set up shop at the Capitol.

House members passed two bills that would make Michigan a "right to work" state, essentially prohibiting union security agreements, which make union membership or fees a condition of employment. The bills, which covered private sector and public sector employees, had passed the state Senate last week.

Snyder, a Republican, signed both bills in private Tuesday afternoon, hailing the legislation as a victory for Michigan workers and a way to bring more jobs to the state.

"This is a major day in Michigan's history," he said at a news conference. "This is an opportunity for unions to step up and say how they can provide the best value to workers in our state."

The legislation comes as workplace tensions grow across the country.

While employees making low wages at companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and McDonald's Corp. are protesting to demand higher wages, businesses are increasing the number of lockouts they impose on workers. And in the last two years, union supporters have converged on state capitols in Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio to oppose bills that restricted their power.

Now, labor groups from around the country are watching what happens in Michigan, where labor groups have vowed to overturn the law and vote Snyder out of office by 2014. If Michigan, which voted for President Obama over native son Mitt Romney by 8 percentage points, becomes a right-to-work state permanently, others could follow suit.

"Michigan could prove defining," said Harley Shaiken, a labor expert at UC Berkeley. "What happens here, given the role of unions historically in Michigan, and the larger political implications of right-to-work, could mean a lot."

The bills came as a surprise to many in labor, especially after recent victories at the ballot box. Gov. Snyder had initially said he was not interested in pursuing right-to-work laws, because they affected a relatively small number of Michiganders.

But he said that Proposal 2, a labor-backed referendum on the November ballot, "triggered the dialogue" about labor issues and led him to ultimately support anti-union legislation. The proposal would have enshrined collective bargaining rights in the state's constitution, but it was rejected by voters by a large margin.

"I asked labor leaders not to move forward with the ballot proposal because I knew it could trigger a discussion that could lead to right-to-work being a divisive issue," he said. "Unfortunately, they moved forward, it became divisive, and it was time to step up and take a leadership position."

It's unlikely the Legislature would have had enough votes to pass the bills in January, when the Legislature will still be in Republican control but more moderate, said Roland Zullo, a research scientist at the University of Michigan's Institute for Labor and Industrial Relations. The legislative approval, and Snyder's backing, signal that the partisan discord paralyzing the federal government is present on a local level too.

"There's retribution on many levels here," Zullo said. "It would have been easy for the current political party to walk away and say it is done, but instead, during this lame duck session when they feel they have the votes, they're pushing through a right-to-work law, allowing no debates."

Even before the legislation passed Tuesday, labor leaders were brainstorming ways to reverse the bills. The right-to-work legislation is attached to appropriations bills, so it can't simply be reversed in a referendum. But it could be reversed in a citizen's initiative in 2014, the same year that Snyder would be running for reelection.

"While it was disappointing that Snyder rammed this divisive 'tea party' legislation through we are considering all options that are on the table," said Eddie Vale, a spokesman for the labor-funded Workers' Voice. "Whether it is the available ballot initiative option, or Snyder's reelection itself, he will strongly hear the voices of Michiganders in 2014."

Unions have had mixed results overturning the slate of anti-labor laws that have been passed in the last two years. In Wisconsin, where Gov. Scott Walker signed a bill limiting collective bargaining for public sector employees, the law is still being challenged in various courts. An effort to recall Walker failed.

Labor had more success in Ohio, where Gov. John Kasich signed a bill in early 2011 that restricted collective bargaining rights for public employees. Unions were able to repeal the bill through a referendum in November 2011.

Anger against Kasich and Ohio Republicans may have helped President Obama win in Ohio in November.

Unions are popular in some parts of Michigan, where they had guaranteed pensions, benefits and high wages for decades in the auto industry. Although they were blamed by some for bankrupting the auto industry during the recession, they have regained trust by agreeing to a number of concessions with the Big Three automakers, said Kristin Dziczek, director of the labor and industry group for the Center for Automotive Research.

"A lot of people are currently benefiting from the United Auto Workers' bargaining, or have in the past," Dziczek said.

Conservative groups hailed the passage of the bills as an economic boon for Michigan, which was plagued by some of the highest unemployment rates in the nation during the recession.

"In addition to greater freedom for Michigan's workers, the right-to-work law will provide significant economic benefits for the state's workers and small businesses," Mark Mix, president of the National Right to Work Committee, said in a statement.

Michigan probably won't see the repercussions of the bills for a few years. That's because the right-to-work legislation only goes into effect when unions renegotiate contracts with management. For many autoworkers, that won't happen until 2015.

alana.semuels@latimes.com

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Obama and Boehner get along fine; politics is the problem

WASHINGTON — In summer 2011, negotiations between President Obama and House Speaker John A. Boehner over raising the debt ceiling featured plenty of drama.

There were private grumbles, a very public round of golf, a phone call from the White House that went unreturned and, overall, a lost opportunity to secure a "grand bargain" on spending and taxes.

Now, as high-stakes talks between Obama and Boehner rev up again, the lessons of that summer appear to be producing a new steadiness and comfort level between the two men.

After weeks of private phone calls and public posturing, the Ohio Republican quietly ducked into the White House on Sunday for his first one-on-one meeting with the president since mid-2011. The goal this time: forging a deal to avoid $500 billion in tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect in early January.

The face-to-face session came and went without a flood of leaks or post-meeting spin by either camp. The two sides even issued identical brief statements saying "lines of communication remain open," a far cry from Boehner's public complaint last Friday that prospects for compromise were "nowhere."

Obama had greased Sunday's meeting by giving Boehner a bottle of fine Italian wine — a Brunello di Montalcino — for his birthday on Nov. 17. Red wine was the speaker's drink of choice during the tense talks last year to raise the federal debt ceiling.

Boehner, for his part, didn't just call the president to wish him happy birthday. The son of a barkeeper sang him the first verse of the "Boehner Birthday Song," a three-sentence chant that ends with a Polka-style "Hey!"

"Personality has never been a roadblock to an agreement," said Brendan Buck, a Boehner spokesman. "The two men get along very well."

White House spokesman Jay Carney returned the sentiment: "The president likes and respects Speaker Boehner and looks forward to continuing to work with him."

If a deal falls apart, it probably will be a matter of politics, not personalities.

Members of the Republican right flank are all but certain to revolt if Boehner agrees to the president's proposal to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. And Obama will take heavy flack from left-leaning Democrats if he agrees to spending cuts sought by the GOP in Medicare, Social Security and other popular entitlement programs.

For weeks, the president has tried to build public pressure on Republicans. He kept the campaign up on Monday at a diesel engine plant near Detroit, where he suggested he was the one seeking a middle ground.

"I've said I will work with Republicans on a plan for economic growth, job creation and reducing our deficits and that has some compromises between Democrats and Republicans," Obama said. "I understand people have a lot of different views."

But Obama has not tried to go around or embarrass Boehner by seeking support from other Republican lawmakers. Boehner, in turn, has made a concerted effort to tone down the conservative critics in his ranks.

Obama had little one-on-one contact with Boehner, then the House Republican leader, in the first two years of his presidency. As the debt ceiling battle escalated in June 2011, the two men staged their first notable meeting on neutral territory: the golf course at Andrews Air Force Base. Obama and Boehner played on the same team, beating Vice President Joe Biden and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

"They really made an effort with the theatrics with the golf game, for example, to show a message of reassurance that these people were not blood enemies," said Ross Baker, a professor of American politics at Rutgers University.

The game was followed by secret meetings, and they began to hammer out a $4-trillion "grand bargain" deficit-cutting deal. The talks were torpedoed and resuscitated throughout July. They came to an acrimonious end on July 22, with Boehner accusing Obama of moving the goal posts on new tax revenue.

Obama, appearing on television, groused about being "left at the altar" for the second time that month. Aides said Boehner had not returned the president's phone call.

Instead of a historic bargain, Congress passed a smaller deficit reduction bill at the 11th hour, including automatic across-the-board spending cuts now at play in the "fiscal cliff" talks.

Neither man seems to be holding a grudge — for now.

kathleen.hennessey@latimes.com

melanie.mason@latimes.com

Lisa Mascaro and Michael A. Memoli in the Washington bureau contributed to this report.

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Luke Bryan cleans up at ACAs with 9 awards

Luke Bryan didn't want the American Country Awards to end.

He cleaned up during the fan-voted show, earning nine awards, including artist and album of the year. His smash hit "I Don't Want This Night To End" was named single and music video of the year.

Miranda Lambert took home the second most guitar trophies with three. Jason Aldean was named touring artist of the year. Carrie Underwood won female artist of the year, and a tearful Lauren Alaina won new artist of the year.

Bryan, Aldean, Keith Urban, Lady Antebellum and Trace Adkins with Lynyrd Skynrd were among the high-energy performances.

The third annual ACAs were held at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas Monday night.

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Online: http://www.theACAs.com

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Follow http://www.twitter.com/AP_Country for the latest country music news from The Associated Press.

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Rate of Childhood Obesity Falls in Several Cities

PHILADELPHIA — After decades of rising childhood obesity rates, several American cities are reporting their first declines.

The trend has emerged in big cities like New York and Los Angeles, as well as smaller places like Anchorage, Alaska, and Kearney, Neb. The state of Mississippi has also registered a drop, but only among white students.

“It’s been nothing but bad news for 30 years, so the fact that we have any good news is a big story,” said Dr. Thomas Farley, the health commissioner in New York City, which reported a 5.5 percent decline in the number of obese schoolchildren from 2007 to 2011.

The drops are small, just 5 percent here in Philadelphia and 3 percent in Los Angeles. But experts say they are significant because they offer the first indication that the obesity epidemic, one of the nation’s most intractable health problems, may actually be reversing course.

The first dips — noted in a September report by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation — were so surprising that some researchers did not believe them.

Deanna M. Hoelscher, a researcher at the University of Texas, who in 2010 recorded one of the earliest declines — among mostly poor Hispanic fourth graders in the El Paso area — did a double-take. “We reran the numbers a couple of times,” she said. “I kept saying, ‘Will you please check that again for me?’ ”

Researchers say they are not sure what is behind the declines. They may be an early sign of a national shift that is visible only in cities that routinely measure the height and weight of schoolchildren. The decline in Los Angeles, for instance, was for fifth, seventh and ninth graders — the grades that are measured each year — between 2005 and 2010. Nor is it clear whether the drops have more to do with fewer obese children entering school or currently enrolled children losing weight. But researchers note that declines occurred in cities that have had obesity reduction policies in place for a number of years.

Though obesity is now part of the national conversation, with aggressive advertising campaigns in major cities and a push by Michelle Obama, many scientists doubt that anti-obesity programs actually work. Individual efforts like one-time exercise programs have rarely produced results. Researchers say that it will take a broad set of policies applied systematically to effectively reverse the trend, a conclusion underscored by an Institute of Medicine report released in May.

Philadelphia has undertaken a broad assault on childhood obesity for years. Sugary drinks like sweetened iced tea, fruit punch and sports drinks started to disappear from school vending machines in 2004. A year later, new snack guidelines set calorie and fat limits, which reduced the size of snack foods like potato chips to single servings. By 2009, deep fryers were gone from cafeterias and whole milk had been replaced by one percent and skim.

Change has been slow. Schools made money on sugary drinks, and some set up rogue drink machines that had to be hunted down. Deep fat fryers, favored by school administrators who did not want to lose popular items like French fries, were unplugged only after Wayne T. Grasela, the head of food services for the school district, stopped buying oil to fill them.

But the message seems to be getting through, even if acting on it is daunting. Josh Monserrat, an eighth grader at John Welsh Elementary, uses words like “carbs,” and “portion size.” He is part of a student group that promotes healthy eating. He has even dressed as an orange to try to get other children to eat better. Still, he struggles with his own weight. He is 5-foot-3 but weighed nearly 200 pounds at his last doctor’s visit.

“I was thinking, ‘Wow, I’m obese for my age,’ ” said Josh, who is 13. “I set a goal for myself to lose 50 pounds.”

Nationally, about 17 percent of children under 20 are obese, or about 12.5 million people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which defines childhood obesity as a body mass index at or above the 95th percentile for children of the same age and sex. That rate, which has tripled since 1980, has leveled off in recent years but has remained at historical highs, and public health experts warn that it could bring long-term health risks.

Obese children are more likely to be obese as adults, creating a higher risk of heart disease and stroke. The American Cancer Society says that being overweight or obese is the culprit in one of seven cancer deaths. Diabetes in children is up by a fifth since 2000, according to federal data.

“I’m deeply worried about it,” said Francis S. Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, who added that obesity is “almost certain to result in a serious downturn in longevity based on the risks people are taking on.”

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Study predicts rise of a global middle class

WASHINGTON — Majorities of people in most countries will achieve middle-class economic status by 2030, but the effects of climate change, an aging global population and anti-government movements in authoritarian nations such as China could cause upheaval in economic and political systems.

The predictions come from a forward-looking study by the National Intelligence Council, which every four years analyzes key trends and projects their implications 20 years into the future.

The United States is likely to remain "first among equals" among world powers because of the legacy of its leadership role and military power, according to the report.

No other global power or international order is likely to replace the United States' primacy, it said, even though in terms of overall power — economic output, population, military spending and investment — Asia will surpass North America and Europe over the next two decades.

"The context in which the U.S. global power will operate will change dramatically," stated the 166-page report, titled "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds."

In a dramatic shift from previous reports, it projects that the U.S. will become energy independent because of abundant shale gas deposits now accessible with hydraulic fracturing technology, known as fracking. That is likely to reduce America's dependence on energy sources from unstable regions of the world.

The report assesses that China will overtake the U.S. as the world's largest economy as measured by national output, but notes that the growing wealth there may spark a popular yearning for multi-party democracy. It warns that any challenge of China's communist leadership could lead to political turmoil, however, and upend the global economy.

In a best-case scenario, the study said China may undergo gradual political reform and work closely with the United States to usher in a period of global political stability and economic growth.

A worst-case projection has the United States turning inward and the European Union unraveling, while corruption and social unrest stall growth in the world's largest countries, China and India.

The study described the expected growth of the global middle class as a "tectonic shift" that will require sharply increased production of food, water and energy, and may lead to scarcities.

"For the first time, a majority of the world's population will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world," the report noted.

But increasing global temperatures and rising seas may disrupt rain patterns and agriculture, and many countries probably will face food and water shortages.

Aging nations such as Japan, with fewer workers supporting a growing number of retirees, will face an uphill battle to maintain living standards. It projects that Russia will see its population fall by as many as 10 million people, and will continue a slow decline in global influence.

With the rapid expansion of new technologies, individuals will be empowered as never before, the study said. But the same trends have the potential to aid terrorists and criminals, who will have access to new methods of attack.

Terrorists could use drone aircraft to deliver biological toxins, or launch major cyber attacks to disable infrastructure, the report warned. On the other hand, it projected that the war against Al Qaeda is likely to be over by 2030.

"The current Islamist phase of terrorism" probably will recede just as other terrorism movements have faded away, including anarchists in the late 19th century, post-World War II anti-colonial movements and violent New Left groups in the 1970s.

Some 15 countries are at high risk of "state failure" by 2030, the study said, including four where the Obama administration is targeting Al Qaeda militants — Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen.

The global trend reports tend to be broad enough to account for almost any outcome. None of the scenarios is inevitable, but they have occasionally proved prescient.

In 2000, a year before the Sept. 11 attacks, the report discussed the threat of large-scale terrorist attacks.

"Such asymmetric approaches — whether undertaken by states or non-state actors — will become the dominant characteristic of most threats to the U.S.," it warned.

ken.dilanian@latimes.com

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Plenty of smoke clouds the future of legalized pot in Washington

SEATTLE — Customers have been drifting into Jay Fratt's alternative pipe and tobacco shop, Smokin J's, in the days since Washington state's marijuana law took effect, wondering when cannabis would take its place on the shelves next to the handblown glass pipes.

Hold on, he told them. Fratt is, before anything else, a businessman, and he quickly realized there was a lot of smoke in the details.

First of all, the law setting up the nation's first legal regulatory system for retail pot won't allow sales until next year. And the federal government still considers marijuana illegal.

Then there are the taxation provisions: Can legal retailers compete with the black market when they have to pay over 25% in taxes? What about the provision that says marijuana shops can't stock anything but pot and pot supplies? What would happen to the Vancouver, Wash., shopkeeper's tie-dye baby jumpsuits, his "Stoner" trivia games, his meditating Buddha tapestries?

The euphoria that accompanied the debut of the initiative making it legal in Washington for adults to possess an ounce or less of marijuana faded shortly after midnight Thursday, when about 150 people gathered at the base of the Space Needle in Seattle to toke up in celebration.

By Friday morning, the bureaucrats, the lawyers and the suits from Wall Street were pulling into town as state regulators began setting up what could become a $1-billion industry, built precariously on a product whose possession the federal government considers a felony.

State officials estimate that pot will soon be selling legally for about $12 a gram, with annual consumption of 85 million grams — a potential bonanza in state tax revenue of nearly $2 billion over the first five years.

"I'm telling my clients, if I had a collective and I knew that legalization was coming and I knew they were going to be licensing people and I was already in the business, I'd be one of the first people going to apply for a license," said Jay Berneburg, a Tacoma, Wash., lawyer who held a seminar recently about getting into the retail trade.

"You could make a million dollars in five days. There's going to be people lined up to buy marijuana, just because they can," he said.

Venture capitalists are moving in. Brendan Kennedy and Michael Blue, two Yale University MBA graduates with backgrounds in Silicon Valley, have raised $5 million through their private equity firm, Privateer Holdings, believed to be the first in the nation to focus strictly on marijuana-related companies.

"We realized this was and is the biggest opportunity we think we'll probably see in our lifetimes," Blue said.

Their first acquisition was Leafly.com, a website that rates strains of marijuana for their medicinal properties. Users can plug in their ZIP codes and find out which products available in their areas produce the effects they're looking for, from "giggly" to the ability to treat migraines.

Vaporizers are another product they're looking at — anything that doesn't directly involve buying or selling marijuana. Privateer is offering investors the chance to make money in an arena most venture capitalists can't touch under standard partnership agreements, which normally spell out that investments not in compliance with federal law are prohibited. That means, they figure, an opportunity for stunning profits with little competition from other investment firms — though one has to listen to a lot of Bob Marley at trade shows.

"I've studied a lot of industries. I've never seen one that had this unique set of circumstances," Kennedy said. "It's highly fragmented, it's very unstructured, there's no leaders, there's no standards. The entire topic is taboo, and there's no involvement by Wall Street ... which is a unique opportunity, right?"

The state Liquor Control Board is asking for a staff of 40 to help set up a network of possibly 300 or more state-licensed retail stores. The board must also figure out how to regulate growers and packagers.

That process will take much of the next year. Though it has been legal since Thursday for adults to use small amounts of marijuana away from public view, they can't buy it, sell it or grow it until regulations are in place. Exemptions remain for medical users under existing law.

"Nowhere in the nation, or in the world, have they set up a regulatory system for recreational marijuana use. I think that's where we're kind of charting new ground," said Pat Kohler, director of the board.

"There will have to be a set of regulations set up on how much they can grow, what kind of security they need to have, can they grow it indoors — all these things need to be discussed."

In part, Kohler said, Washington will be looking to Colorado — where voters approved a similar statute that goes into effect in January — which has in place regulations for medical marijuana more comprehensive than Washington's laissez-faire approach.

She said it would also be logical to model regulations on rules governing the liquor industry. Until this year, when alcohol sales were privatized, hard liquor in Washington was sold at state-licensed stores that, like those to be set up under the marijuana law, sold nothing but alcohol under tight regulation and taxation.

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